Quantifying Non-Recurring Delay on New York City’s Arterial Highways

Download Final Report

CAIT project no.: CU 15 RU9098

Fiscal Year: 2003/2004

Status: Final

Rutgers-CAIT Author(s): Kaan Ozbay

External Author(s): George List, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Sponsor(s): NYSDOT


The project will help NYSDOT and NYCDOT better quantify and predict the non-recurring delay (NRD) from incidents on the City’s highway network. NRD is a substantial portion of the total delay that occurs within the City and it can be mitigated through various actions. If NYSDOT and NYCDOT can better predict NRD and trace it to the causing factors, they can take actions to reduce it. Those actions range from TSM and ITS measures to geometric changes and capacity investments. A variety of models could be linked to the look-up tables. One candidate is the CNAM. Each model has strengths and weaknesses regarding its ability to interface with the look-up tables and predict NRD. The purpose of this task will be to review these alternatives (e.g., CNAM, Tranplan, Paramics, and TransCAD) and evaluating their ability to support the NRD prediction task. A list of models to review will be developed through a dialog with NYSDOT and NYCDOT (and potentially other agencies, such as NYMTC and PANYNJ). The method for assessing the model’s performance and the criteria to employ will also be jointly identified. Access to the models (perhaps copies of them) will be provided by NYSDOT and or NYCDOT in the event that the research team does not have a copy so that the review can be conducted. For purposes of assessment, two time periods will be employed: present conditions and those anticipated for six years in the future. The resulting deliverable will be a TM summarizing the results of the assessment.

The modeling tools developed in this investigation will be used to quantity the NRD that now occurs and predict what it will be six years into the future. This modeling exercise will also consider the estimation of NRD for both the base case condition and the different strategies considered.